The attack on the deputies suggests the government is not going to pull back on its push to take over the National Assembly...a multi-faceted push appears to be underway to consolidate their control.
David Smilde, curator of the blog, is a WOLA Senior Fellow and the Charles A. and Leo M. Favrot Professor of Human Relations at Tulane University. He has lived in or worked on Venezuela since 1992. Professor Smilde has researched Venezuela for the past twenty years. He has taught at the Universidad Central de Venezuela and the Universidad Católica Ándres Bello. From 2010-2012 he was the Chair of the Venezuelan Studies Section of the Latin American Studies Association. He is currently working on a book manuscript called Venezuela’s Transition to Socialism: Politics and Human Rights under Chávez, 2008-2012. He is co-editor of Venezuela's Bolivarian Democracy: Participation, Politics and Culture under Chávez (Duke 2011).
Posts by David
Venezuela’s political situation decayed even further this week as the Maduro government pushed to seize control of the National Assembly rather than allow National Assembly president Juan Guaidó be elected to a second term.
(See explainers from AP, the …
Atravesando nuestro análisis es la idea de que es normal que un conflicto serio viera iniciativas multiples que surgen y se agotan, siendo reemplazado por nuevos esfuerzos. La clave es que se construyen sobre lo que ya ha ocurrido en lugar de comenzar de nuevo cada vez. Vemos este progreso en los cuatros procesos.
In an electoral year, the Trump Administration has no motivation to alter the current situation. Having a deadlock in Venezuela will help them mobilize the electorate in South Florida and at the same time use Venezuela's governance disaster to stigmatize "socialism." This is the playbook that has served Republican so well for the past half century in Florida and the Venezuela conflict has provided it with new energy. Any kind of military intervention or significant diplomatic push would pose significant risks for Trump and are unattractive options compared to the status-quo.
The Maduro government is trying to nibble away at the majority coalition to prevent Guaidó from getting the 84 votes he needs in the 167 seat legislature. The dominant opposition coalition is doing what it can to keep its majority in tact for the January 5, 2020 re-election of Juan Guaidó as National Assembly president.
Esta mañana hice una entrevista con periodista venezolano Cesar Miguel Rondón, a base de la pregunta y respuesta publicado ayer por el Latin America Advisor. Durante diez minutos hablamos de la unidad y liderazgo de la coalición opositora, …
Today the Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor ran a Q&A on the Venezuelan opposition’s current malaise. Julia Buxton, Luis Vicente Leon and I provided responses. The question and my response are below. The entire Q&A can be read here.…
Venezuela’s economic context is in transformation yet again with a process of liberalization and dollarization leading to a small recovery, alleviating some but leaving others even worse off.
The opposition’s current problems are indicators of a conjuncture in which they need to decide, on multiple fronts, whether they are a temporary parallel government that seeks to dislodge Maduro through maximum pressure in the short-term, despite the costs on the Venezuelan people and the inevitable scandals involved in working through improvised institutions; or whether they are going to seek sustainability and prioritize the well-being of the Venezuelan people by reaching some sort of modus vivendi with the Maduro government, despite the costs of tacitly recognizing it.
U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams suggested that there would be no change in U.S. strategy. “No, we don’t have a plan B. We have a plan A that we think will work.”