Sanctions…again

[Yesterday Luis Vicente Leon used his weekly column in El Universal to write-up the presentation he gave at WOLA last week (scroll down the blog for the webcast. LVL’s presentation starts at 27:00), including data from a new survey (see the data here). Below is a translation of his article.]

Luis Vicente Leon

Sunday, July 13, 2014

I was invited by the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) to participate in a public event analyzing the possible impacts (not necessarily intended) of the potential application of sanctions on a specific group of Venezuelan public officials accused of human rights violations.

I had already made public my views on this issue. For me, unilateral sanctions are pointless and support should be channeled through other institutional mechanisms. But I also think the history of the Venezuelan conflict is much more complicated than the conventional discourses of radicals on both sides make it, which in turn gives rise to simplistic and bias interpretations abroad. Finally, any unilateral action taken by the US government would not be welcome by the majority in Venezuela because it would be viewed as intervention. It would only give the government more solid arguments to demonstrate that there is a conspiracy trying to overthrow it—the perfect excuse to justify the current crisis–generating sympathy among independents, unifying Chavismo and moving the Latin American international community to react with primary solidarity.

That is still my opinion, but on his occasion I came not only to express what I think but to share what Venezuelans think about the issue and for this I used the results of the last Datanalisis poll finished on May 27.

Let’s start by saying that 70% of the population believes that the situation of the country is negative, but nevertheless, 73% disagree with the idea of the US government taking unilateral action–this includes 55% of those who identify as government opponents and 64% of independents.  70% of respondents disagree with the idea of applying sanctions against Venezuela. Even when we did the acid test, asking about specific sanctions against officials accused of committing human rights violations, we found 54% against it, and 38% in favor.

We found the most relevant response when we asked what could be the motivations of the US in applying sanctions against Venezuelan officials. The response was overwhelming. 44% think it would be an excuse to provoke a coup d’état in order to control Venezuela’s oil, while 16% think it would be a disguised mechanism to attack Maduro. Only 20% think it is simply a mechanism to punish public officials that have violated human rights.

I am convinced that the proposed sanctions are neither intended to take our oil nor provoke a coup. Rather they are the result of a combination of factors including the real concerns of many decent people in the US, over violations of human rights in Venezuela, mixed with the classic interests of electoral politics in districts with high concentration of antichavista migration (Venezuelan and Cuban) on the eve of congressional elections. But the perception in Venezuela is different and its secondary effects are contrary to the desired objectives of those who are doing this with a genuine interest in helping.

It is important for these issues to be brought to multilateral organizations specializing in human rights, seeking to get them to declare and denounce any violation that has in fact occurred and pressure the government to punish and rectify. Taking the individual route of Big Brother usually ends up being a Big Mistake, or as Marino Alvarado of Provea says, an own goal from midfield.

@luisvicenteleon

Luisvleon@gmail.com

Translated by David Smilde